TOPIC:

I've made comments along these lines elsewhere, but I think it deserves a topic...

What do you guys think of the prices of genuine vintage Tamiya cars and parts (and other brands too) in 2013?

Just my opinion, but I think that in most cases, things are cheaper now than 5 years ago. Obviously the re-releases have had a huge effect, causing original values to drop. But it's not just that. I think the general demand for many things has either stagnated, or fallen. In a few isolated cases, it may have increased, but these are the exception - not the norm.

When vintage kits are up for bidding These days, the end prices are often quite soft. It flies ever more in the face of those sellers trying to sell things at high BIN prices, based on some perceived price incline that started in the mid 2000s when everything (Tamiyas, Kyoshos etc) started to hit peak value.

But actually, that imaginary incline has turned into a decline in my view. There aren't infinite collectors in the world, nor infinite demand, so perhaps most now have all they ever wanted.

What do you guys think? And what are some examples that support or dispute my theory?

H.


www.rctoymemories.com

If you'd asked me a week ago, I would have said my impression was that RC prices in general had gone up 30% in six months ... now, my impression is that prices have dropped more than that in a week.

Neither are hard data - the impression of rising prices came from sucking air through my teeth when seeing the Buy It Now prices some people were after, the latter from seeing how little a couple of the more aspirational cars sold for at auction recently.

The impression people can have of eBay prices, however, unless you look a lot deeper, can be deeply misleading - for instance, if you see an NIB kit up at 500 GBP, then the next time you look it's gone does not mean it sold for 500 GBP. Maybe it did - but it's also possible it was withdrawn, in which case, what happened to it? If it wasn't sold, then that 500 should not figure in anyones estimations of value. If it did sell, was it for 300 notes from a local cash buyer? Did it sell to someone on a forum? And for how much less? Again, it shouldn't figure in anyone's estimations as you just don't know what it sold for. If it sold as a "best offer", eBay now hide the final sale price, so again you just don't know - but while the final values were visible, it wasn't that unusual to see something sell for 60% of an already low price.


What you need is actual data ... since 2010 I've been collecting RC price data on eBay (about 1,600 so far) - but even that is limited - it's strictly UK only, and only for the cars I was interested in tracking values of, starting (and sometimes ending) when I felt like it. In general I haven't kept notes on condition (becuase how do you rate that & put it in a simple graph?), but even so, unless someone has been collecting values on an automated basis, I think the values I've collected, were there were enough sales over a long enough time are enough to show something useful - I'll pick some cars out & post graphs later.

IMO I think the GFC has had an affect on these things, there will always be a difference between a want and a need. Demand always affects prices and I have seen clear evidence that demand has dropped and of course I wonder if sellers have unrealistic expectations ? Remember something is only worth what someone is prepared to pay, people need to see worth and sometimes this can bolstered by sentiment, but this would only be limited to a few. I agree that re-re's have affected the sales of their vintage originals, this just shows that although people want to get that rc from their past they always wanted, it's not an "at any cost" requirement. cheers andy

Some grpahs for you. The cars were not chosen at random, they are the ones I was most interested in tracking & so have the most data for the longest periods - they were not chosen to "proove" any particular point(s).










I still have a lot more data I haven't done any analysis on. The cars I would say I have a significant statisical universe on are:
Blackfoot
Cheetah
Fox
Mardave Apache
Mardave Meteor
Mardave Cobra
Ranger
Rough Rider
Super Champ
Wild Willy M38 LWB
XR311

... and less so on these:
Bruiser
Clod Buster
Falcon
King Blackfoot
Lunchbox
Mondeo FF01
Porsche 959
Associated RC10 Gold Tub
Sand Scorcher
Striker


I still have price data on more cars than that, but not to the same standard. Although in some cases that's becase so few come up for sale. If anyone is genuinely interest in a particular car I could create & post a graph, but I'm not interested in doing it for the sake of it.

difficult subject. totally changes sometimes in hours.

I bought a WW2 couple a weeks ago for about 60€, week later someone sold one in similar state for 150€

TopForce and TopForce evo, seen the TF go for as low as 60€ and up to 170€, runners in ok state mostly complete. TF evo goes from 90 to 200+ € runner not shelf queens.

So it goes from, oh dear would never sell for that or Wow for that price I would sell my cars.

Jonny wrote:

for instance, if you see an NIB kit up at 500 GBP, then the next time you look it's gone does not mean it sold for 500 GBP.

Yes, absolutely. I'm definitely only referring to the end prices of auctions involving an actual sale. And yeah, some of them are hard to tell these days, if the accepted price is not revealed.

Your graphs are amazing pieces of work, well done there!

Is there any chance you could refine them to only display NIB values? As you said, comparing used items is loaded with waaay too many variables.

Apologies if my earlier post was too general, but I'm only thinking along the lines of NIB prices - for that very reason (while NIB values may also vary a bit based on box condition, generally it's only the fussiest collectors who really care about box condition - many even prefer "patina").

Also, I'm drawing a very long and anecdotal bow in trying to compare say, 2005 or 2007, to today. If only eBay's historical price data was available, we would be able to see what's changed...

And the final thing to consider of course, is inflation. Even if prices from 2010 - today, remain static, that actually means values have slipped a little.

cheers,
H.

Interesting graphs, particularly the Monster Beetle one. When was the MB re-released? If it was around July/August 2011, it is clearly having an effect on values.

The Sand Rover and Holiday Buggy re-releases look like they are too dissimilar to the originals to have much effect.

re just having NIB values - there are far fewer sales of "interesting" genuinely vintage NIB Tamiya kits on ebay than you'd think, and I'd estimate that fully two thirds of them end with the item being withdrawn as "no longer available for sale" (vs. around 1/4 for used examples).

The data I have is therefore not enough to form any sort of view on prices - although I didn't help matters by not keeping note of condition from the start. This is the data I do have:


It's not relevent to your question, but of those 18, I was absolutely certain 6 had shill bidding going on. I'm not going to say which ones - the car & date is enough to uniquely identify a specific sale & I don't have access to the information to prove shilling beyond reasonable doubt.

Martin wrote:

Interesting graphs, particularly the Monster Beetle one. When was the MB re-released? If it was around July/August 2011, it is clearly having an effect on values.

The Sand Rover and Holiday Buggy re-releases look like they are too dissimilar to the originals to have much effect.

Unless I was hiding under a rock that particular year & missed it, the Monster Beetle has not been released.

Arithmetic means become more accurate as the size of the set of data increases - I think in the Monster Beetle graph, a few high prices at the start of my recording period skewed the average, so it's probably better to ignore the early peak .. but still, a drop of c. 105 to around 70 is significant - but it may also be that the more tatty examples are being dragged out of lofts now.


Re the SR/HB - yes, it's not really comparing like with like ... my impression is that any sort of re-release really harms the values of rough examples, middling ones drop a little, but the value of excellent or NIB ones isn't touched.






I think unless anyone has a huge archive of ebay prices, including condition, for the last 10 years, it's all a matter of opinion... mine is that prices in general are going up at a rate far outstripping inflation - and that for the last couple of years things all to often sell for either half their "true" value, or double it. Despite what is a large and mature market, this volality seems to continue without any real explanation as to why.

Jonny wrote:

Unless I was hiding under a rock that particular year & missed it, the Monster Beetle has not been released.

Ah, my bad - I was thinking of the Blitzer Beetle. Wasn't I?