TOPIC:

Jonny wrote:

Re the SR/HB - yes, it's not really comparing like with like ... my impression is that any sort of re-release really harms the values of rough examples, middling ones drop a little, but the value of excellent or NIB ones isn't touched.

Oh, would have to disagree there JR

My only real credibility on this matter is that for the past 12 years, I've basically bought almost nothing R/C related on eBay, other than NIB kits (and parts of course). I have email records of my purchases though, going back some years.

There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that prices have plummeted for original vintage NIB. So here are some examples of my experiences...

Supershot
2001 - I paid $500 for an 80% NIB kit.
2007 - I had a tilt at winning a NIB one, but missed out as I was outbid over $1000. This was undoubtedly the typical price at this time.
2012 - I won one for a little over $400. Another one recently went off just a month or so ago, for the same.

Hotshot
2007/2008 - I paid a little under $1000ea, per kit.
2013 - Well, look around. They are barely selling for $500 these days.

Frog
2005 - I paid $500 for a new built and even more for a NIB
2013 - They won't sell for more than about $400 now.

Wild Willy
2006 - I paid just under $1000 per kit, for two kits.
2013 - This price hasn't moved at all, and seems to have been on a plateau all this time (despite inflation).

Sand Scorcher
2004-2006 - I paid $3000 per kit.
2013 - They now cannot fetch more than $1500. I saw one sell a few months ago for $1000 - unthinkable just a few years ago! At one point after I bought mine, they were pushing $4000.

Sand Scorcher body set
2009 - They were worth between $750 and $1000 in some cases. I even used worthpoint.com recently and can confirm this to be true (it's not just my memory!)
2013 - Around $450 today.


It's not just Tamiyas either.
Right now there's a seller from Canada on eBay selling off his entire collection from starting bids of around $100 per car, no reserve, and it is giving a wonderful indication of the demand in the market currently - and how it deviates from the stubborn BIN sellers.

Here are his completed items to date:
www.ebay.com.au...te=1&rt=nc

All prices in AU, which has been roughly the same as US for some years now.

Marui Hunter $253 - the same or less than I paid for one in 2000. And yet they had started to creep up to $500 a few years ago.

Porsche 959 $1144 - a good price, but unchanged in my experience since the mid 2000s.

Toyota Hilux monster racer $272 - an absolute steal. The cheapest I have ever seen one.

Monster Beetle $409 - only $100 more than I paid for one in 1994!

Bigwig $552 - cheapest one I have seen for years.

Hotshot II $501 - I paid $900 and $600 for mine, a few years ago.

Wild One $336 - these were consistently $500 - $600 before the re re.

Boomerang $253 - these were consistently $400-$500 before the re re.

Cheers,
H.



www.rctoymemories.com

I bow to your superior knowledge - the only NIB cars I buy are re-re's

ebay is not so interesting than 10 or15 years ago. Same with other auctions like militaria.

It could just be that all the collectors went mad buying everything thrust in their faces when Ebay started, but now they've collected all the cars, anything else that comes up is regarded as "oh go on then, I've got spare cash kicking about", or not as the case may be.
Now the irregularities in value are probably governed by how much "spare cash" people have, what the weather's like, time of year (xmas?), what popular TV series has started on a Sunday night, general terrorism scares, financial status of the country in question etc etc.
In other words, the collectors have collected everything they "can't live without", & anything else is a bonus with value compared to status & current affairs

Probably just me, but I've noticed that in the same way that women who hang about together all line their menstrual cycles up, collectors all seem to want the same car at the same time, which is when we see peaks in prices for that car.
eg, a little while back, 2nd hand Audi Quattros were making 60-100gbp. All of a sudden there were loads about & making 400gbp. Now we're back to a few turning up & going for 100-150. They've been available since 1980something, & they're still about now, so why the brief sky-rocket in price?
My theory is: one appeared, a collector saw it & was reminded "I haven't got that one yet" then all his collector mates got the same idea at the same time (Due to menstruation/telepathy/moon phase or whatever causes it) & they end up bidding daft amounts of money against eachother, whilst the sane look on in disbelief

Jonny wrote:

I bow to your superior knowledge - the only NIB cars I buy are re-re's

I should probably pipe down though, there are many guys out there who buy far, far more than me, and probably have kept a record of stats along these lines I wish I had done that.

eddrick wrote:

It could just be that all the collectors went mad buying everything thrust in their faces when Ebay started, but now they've collected all the cars, anything else that comes up is regarded as "oh go on then, I've got spare cash kicking about", or not as the case may be.

Yes eddrick, this is how I'm leaning too. I think in the last few years, the collecting craze itself has turned a corner. Some collectors seem to have bought all they ever wanted, and stopped buying, or even quit the hobby.

In addition, while the re-releases have sent prices downwards (at least wherever the re-release version was sufficiently similar to the original), this has also had a psychological effect I believe. Some long term collectors were put off by Tamiya's push to re-release kits, and as such stopped posting on forums and possibly stopped collecting altogether.

I think the peak period was sometime around 2004/2005, before the buggy rereleases. I remember when a set of original rear Hornet tyres were over $100.

While everybody likes to be able to afford things, I think I prefer those days before Tamiya flooded the market. It may have been harder to get things, but when you did get them it felt more satisfying - more of an accomplishment. Because it was hard, and you had to hunt and save hard.
Browsing eBay today and seeing hundreds upon hundreds of re-releases, numbs the brain and killed some of the treasure hunt fun of it all. And this is even though I personally still only buy originals, and have boycotted the re-re's entirely.

eddrick wrote:

My theory is: one appeared, a collector saw it & was reminded "I haven't got that one yet" then all his collector mates got the same idea at the same time (Due to menstruation/telepathy/moon phase or whatever causes it) & they end up bidding daft amounts of money against eachother, whilst the sane look on in disbelief

I would agree with this too.
A recently example I've seen is the price of NIB 1/32 mini 4WDs of cars like the Fox, Falcon, Bigwig and Boomerang. A few months ago, they suddenly skyrocketed....as if they had not been available for some time, and then a bidding war erupted when some finally appeared (they are reasonably rare).

I kid you not, but some of those 1/32 models (e.g. Falcon) were selling for more than a NIB 1/10 original kit - upwards of $400.

Then of course, others noticed, and now more have come onto the market...and prices have settled a bit.
(Note that the mini 4WDs I've mentioned are the ones that have not been re-released. Some, like the Hotshot and Hornet, have been rereleased by Tamiya, thus they are nowhere near as expensive, even for an original).

Synchronisisation of male menstrual cycles could explain an abrupt rise in the average price, but what about prices bouncing from half to double on a seemingly alternating basis?

I have a theory about that - something comes up for sale, lots of people watch but don't bid, then when it goes for peanuts, decide they did really want it after all, then bid up the next one to silly levels ... anyone who didn't win gets discouraged & drops out, then a new batch of suckers repeat the process?

Personally i don't care about NIB prices, i wanna get the most fun out of the restoration of my old tamiya's. I do on occasion buy a NIB but i have 1 rule not to spend more then 250 euro on a NIB because i otherwise feel i could get more tamiya's to restore for the same amount of money

Cheers, Bram

Jonny wrote:

Synchronisisation of male menstrual cycles could explain an abrupt rise in the average price, but what about prices bouncing from half to double on a seemingly alternating basis?

Could be syncronisation of female menstrual cycles and men retreating to their sheds with a laptop

I dunno about parts being cheap - everything I bid on seems to go for silly money

BramMeijer wrote:

Personally i don't care about NIB prices, i wanna get the most fun out of the restoration of my old tamiya's. I do on occasion buy a NIB but i have 1 rule not to spend more then 250 euro on a NIB because i otherwise feel i could get more tamiya's to restore for the same amount of money

Cheers, Bram

Right then Bram's got the idea, Lets see some build's then everyone I'll start back on 1 of my builds tomorrow!

I have several projects in various states of dismantle, I'm waiting for winter to end so I can get on with some painting